Understanding Sea Level

Estimates for global mean sea level rates for two different time periods: 1) the era of satellite observations, and 2) the 20th century. Links to observational time series are also provided where possible. Additional explanations of the processes contributing to sea level change can be found here: Understanding Sea Level. A more technical discussion of these estimates can be found in this review article. Uncertainty estimates represent the 90% confidence interval.


Total Sea Level

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
1993 - 2020 3.34 0.40 Beckley et al. (2017) Satellite altimetry
1993 - 2018 3.35 0.47 Frederikse et al. (2020) Tide Gauges
1900 - 2018 1.56 0.30 Frederikse et al. (2020) Tide Gauges

Steric Sea Level

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2005 - 2019 1.10 0.20 Roemmich and Gilson (2009) Argo Floats
1900 - 2018 0.52 0.18 Frederikse et al. (2020) In Situ Observations

Ocean Mass

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2002 - 2020 2.10 0.30 Watkins et al. (2015) GRACE/GRACE-FO
1900 - 2018 1.00 0.30 Frederikse et al. (2020) Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations

Greenland Mass Loss

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2002 - 2020 0.78 0.06 Watkins et al. (2015) GRACE/GRACE-FO
1992 - 2018 0.42 0.04 IMBIE (2019) Data Synthesis
1900 - 2020 0.44 0.09 Frederikse et al. (2020) Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations

Antarctic Mass Loss

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2002 - 2020 0.41 0.11 Watkins et al. (2015) GRACE/GRACE-FO
1992 - 2017 0.30 0.16 IMBIE (2018) Data Synthesis
1900 - 2020 0.08 0.08 Frederikse et al. (2020) Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations

Glacier Mass Loss

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2002 - 2016 0.57 0.10 Wouters et al. (2019) GRACE
1900 - 2018 0.70 0.18 Frederikse et al. (2020) Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations

Land Water Storage

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2002 - 2014 -0.33 0.16 Reager et al., 2016 GRACE
1900 - 2018 -0.21 0.13 Frederikse et al. (2020) Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations