By the Numbers
Estimates for global mean sea level rates for two different time periods: 1) the era of satellite observations, and 2) the 20th century. Links to observational time series are also provided where possible. Additional explanations of the processes contributing to sea level change can be found here: Understanding Sea Level. A more technical discussion of these estimates can be found in this review article. Uncertainty estimates represent the 90% confidence interval.
Total Sea Level
| PERIOD | ESTIMATE (mm/yr) | UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) | REFERENCE | MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 - 2020 | 3.34 | 0.40 | Beckley et al. (2017) | Satellite altimetry |
| 1993 - 2018 | 3.35 | 0.47 | Frederikse et al. (2020) | Tide Gauges |
| 1900 - 2018 | 1.56 | 0.30 | Frederikse et al. (2020) | Tide Gauges |
Steric Sea Level
| PERIOD | ESTIMATE (mm/yr) | UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) | REFERENCE | MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 - 2019 | 1.10 | 0.20 | Roemmich and Gilson (2009) | Argo Floats |
| 1900 - 2018 | 0.52 | 0.18 | Frederikse et al. (2020) | In Situ Observations |
Ocean Mass
| PERIOD | ESTIMATE (mm/yr) | UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) | REFERENCE | MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 - 2020 | 2.10 | 0.30 | Watkins et al. (2015) | GRACE/GRACE-FO |
| 1900 - 2018 | 1.00 | 0.30 | Frederikse et al. (2020) | Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations |
Greenland Mass Loss
| PERIOD | ESTIMATE (mm/yr) | UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) | REFERENCE | MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 - 2020 | 0.78 | 0.06 | Watkins et al. (2015) | GRACE/GRACE-FO |
| 1992 - 2018 | 0.42 | 0.04 | IMBIE (2019) | Data Synthesis |
| 1900 - 2020 | 0.44 | 0.09 | Frederikse et al. (2020) | Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations |
Antarctic Mass Loss
| PERIOD | ESTIMATE (mm/yr) | UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) | REFERENCE | MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 - 2020 | 0.41 | 0.11 | Watkins et al. (2015) | GRACE/GRACE-FO |
| 1992 - 2017 | 0.30 | 0.16 | IMBIE (2018) | Data Synthesis |
| 1900 - 2020 | 0.08 | 0.08 | Frederikse et al. (2020) | Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations |
Glacier Mass Loss
| PERIOD | ESTIMATE (mm/yr) | UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) | REFERENCE | MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 - 2016 | 0.57 | 0.10 | Wouters et al. (2019) | GRACE |
| 1900 - 2018 | 0.70 | 0.18 | Frederikse et al. (2020) | Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations |
Land Water Storage
| PERIOD | ESTIMATE (mm/yr) | UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) | REFERENCE | MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 - 2014 | -0.33 | 0.16 | Reager et al., 2016 | GRACE |
| 1900 - 2018 | -0.21 | 0.13 | Frederikse et al. (2020) | Synthesis of Satellite and In Situ Observations |
