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Understanding Sea Level

By the Numbers

Estimates for sea level rates for different time periods. Find numbers and respective references for citation.

Total Sea Level

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
1993 - 2014 2.6-2.9 0.4 Watson et al., 2014 Satellite altimetry and tide gauges
1993 - 2010 3.2 0.4 Nerem et al., 2010 Satellite altimetry
1901 - 2010 1.7 0.2 Church and White, 2011 Tide gauge reconstruction
1993 - 2010 2.8 0.5 Church and White, 2011 Tide gauge reconstruction


Steric Sea Level

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
1971 - 2010 0.6 0.2 Domingues et al., 2008 XBT (upper 700 m)
1993 - 2010 0.8 0.3 Domingues et al., 2008 XBT (upper 700 m)
1971 - 2010 0.1 0.1 Levitus et al., 2012 Historical temperature data (XBT, CTD) (700-2000 m)
1993 - 2010 0.2 0.1 Levitus et al., 2012 Historical temperature data (XBT, CTD) (700-2000 m)
1992 - 2005 0.11 0.1 Purkey and Johnson, 2010 Deep hydrographic sections (below 2000 m)


Greenland Mass Loss

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2005 - 2010 0.63 0.17 IPCC AR5 GRACE/ICESat averages
1993 - 2010 0.33 0.08 IPCC AR5 GRACE/ICESat averages
1992 - 2011 0.73 0.26 Shepherd and Ivins et al., 2012 Data synthesis (IMBIE)


Antarctic Mass Loss

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2005 - 2010 0.41 0.2 IPCC AR5 GRACE/ICESat averages
1993 - 2010 0.27 0.11 IPCC AR5 GRACE/ICESat averages
1992 - 2011 0.37 0.28 Shepherd and Ivins et al., 2012 Data synthesis (IMBIE)


Glacier Mass Loss

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
2003 - 2009 0.71 0.08 Gardner et al., 2013 GRACE/ICESat synthesis


Land Water Storage

PERIOD ESTIMATE (mm/yr) UNCERTAINTY (+- mm/yr) REFERENCE MEASUREMENT / FORECAST MODEL
1901 - 1990 -0.11 0.05 IPCC AR5 Anthropogenic Intervention Only
1971 - 2010 0.12 0.09 IPCC AR5 Anthropogenic Intervention Only
1993 - 2010 0.38 0.11 IPCC AR5 Anthropogenic Intervention Only

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